Description
Book Synopsis: There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.
Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.
Details
Uncover the logical flaw that could be affecting the very core of modern science with "Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science" by Aubrey Clayton. Discover how a simple misunderstanding of probability has led to a crisis in reproducibility across multiple disciplines, from medicine to public policy. This thought-provoking book dives deep into the historical errors that have shaped the statistical methodologies we rely on today.
Delve into the fascinating history of statistics with Clayton as he traces the origins of the issue back to seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli. Explore the intricate web of influences that have shaped the field of statistics, from gambling to genetics. Gain insights into how personal biases and political agendas have distorted statistical practices throughout history, leading to widespread consequences in our society.
Embark on a journey through mathematics, philosophy, and culture as Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability. Learn how incorporating Bayesian reasoning can help us navigate the complex world of incomplete information and make more informed decisions. "Bernoulli's Fallacy" offers a compelling argument for reevaluating how we approach data and offers solutions to rectify the crisis we currently face.
Don't miss out on this captivating exploration of statistical illogic and its impact on modern science. Take the first step towards understanding the foundations of probability and statistics with Aubrey Clayton's groundbreaking book. Order your copy of "Bernoulli's Fallacy" today and join the conversation on reshaping the way we use data in today's society.
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